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Jacinda Ardern celebrates her win this evening. National leader Judith Collins says she called Ardern to congratulate her on the win. A view of the Labour celebrations on Saturday evening. It's only politics after all. With 94 per cent of all votes tallied, Labour's 49 per cent share — which equates to 64 of seats — has not shifted in the last hour. To Australians accustomed to one of the two major parties claiming more than 50 per cent and a majority victory in most elections though not so much in the last decade that might sound a little underwhelming.
But because of the nature of New Zealand's mixed-member proportional representation MMP system, 49 per cent is a huge result. Ardern became Prime Minister in , after winning just For National, the news is not so good. At this stage it has won The Greens will be pleased to have gained two seats compared to , rising to 10 with 7. The other big winner looks to be the centre-right ACT party, which has catapulted from one parliamentary seat to 10 as it has passed the 5 per cent threshold for "party list" seats and won 8 per cent of the vote.
As mentioned previously, the Maori Party may now be on track to sneak back into Parliament after a three-year absence with one seat. NZ First, which has won just 2. Jacinda Ardern said the results so far demonstrated Labour had a "very clear mandate to lead a government. She said regardless of one's position on the political spectrum, Peters' contribution to politics over the decades should be acknowledged.
Each poll is taken from a nationally representative sample of around 1, eligible New Zealand voters. We now use a mix of telephone and online sampling. For mobile, the random nature of the calling together with our strong response rates delivers a robust sample. For online we put in place careful interviewing targets to ensure our sample is nationally representative. Weighting is then applied to the entire sample as a final check that our respondents are representative of eligible voters in New Zealand.
Not anymore. Up until the poll was conducted completely by phoning randomly generated landline numbers. However, access and use of landlines has declined notably in recent years making it more challenging to collect nationally representative samples.
In response to this shift we switched the poll to mobile and landline calling in after running several tests ahead of the election. Following further testing at the election, we made the decision to remove landline calling and use a mix of mobile calling and online interviews. Our testing at the election showed this combined approach was highly effective at reaching a nationally representative sample, while also improving our accuracy in measuring voter intention at the election.
You can see the exact questions we ask in the full report here. Undecided voters, non-voters, and those who refuse to answer are excluded from the data on party support.
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